Ten Years Ago...
Egypt and the Consequences of Middle East Regime Changes
White House Photo by Peter Souza
Middle East unrest in Tunisia and Yemen has spread to Egypt, a far more important nation in relation to Western response to Iranian-led extremism.
On January 28, 2011, riots in Egypt escalated and the Egyptian army finally patrolled Cairo, protecting museums and taking over from the police, hated by Egyptian protesters. Although it is no secret that the U.S. government considers Egypt a vital Middle East ally and supports the regime annually with millions in military foreign assistance, it did not help matters that tear gas canisters used against the mobs were labeled “made in the USA.” The Clinton led State Department faces a quandary: to make good on the human rights imperative, or to risk losing a long-term ally in the struggle against terrorism.
Middle East Views toward Recent Events among Arab Regimes
The Israeli government prefers the more rigid and tyrannical Egyptian regime under Hosni Mubarak, fearful of the Muslim Brotherhood. At the same time, the incarceration of Nobel Prize winner Mohamed ElBaradei may offer a potential leadership resolution if Mubarak should leave Egypt, although ElBaradei is 68 years old. (see Spiegel International, January 28, 2011) The Muslin Brotherhood is "the most popular political movement in Egypt" and the greatest threat to Israel (Spiegel, January 28, 2011).
The Iranian newspaper Kayhan (January 26, 2011) states that Iran is responsible for the current efforts in the Middle East to divorce Western influences from regimes such as Tunisia, Yemen, and Egypt.
Saudi sources, following newspaper analysis from January 26 and 27, 2011, noting the events in Tunisia, Egypt, and Lebanon, conclude that U.S. reactions will force acceptance of regime changes while Israel will be thrown into a panic: “…its fat years are now over and its lean years are about to begin…” (Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London) January 27, 2011) (quoted in Middle East Media Research Institute, January 27, 2011, Special Dispatch 3540).
Palestinian Hopes Tied to Potential Middle East Changes
Writing in the Palestine Chronicle (January 28, 2011), Dr. Mazin Qumsiyeh of Bethlehem University, states that, “The Arab world is in revolt. The fire is spreading. Responsible people need to step forward with courage and conviction.” The January 28, 2011 Electric Intifada reported that the January 25, 2011 “Day of Anger” has escalated into a major movement designed to remove the pharaoh “Mubarak.”
While the convoluted view of the United States is known, European response has been slower. An Op-ed piece in Israel National News by American professor Phyllis Chesler insinuates that Britain is inherently anti-Semitic and a staunch supporter of Mubarak.
This may be tied to a long historical relationship with Egypt, strongest in the 19th Century when Sir Evelyn Baring, Lord Cromer, represented British interests in the Middle East from Cairo, sharing that influence with Lord Curzon in India.
If pro-Arab efforts in Egypt, Yemen, Jordan, and Lebanon are successful, new governments, more radical than the pro-Western regimes, may reinvigorate the Palestinian cause but may also undermine the continued leadership of Mahmoud Abbas who has been too prone to compromise.
Egyptians Cutoff from the Outside World
Late in the day on January 28, 2011, the Egyptian regime cutoff cell phone service and internet use. This lesson was well learned from past rioting in Teheran. NPR’s Morning Edition (January 28, 2011) demonstrated police efforts to isolate western journalists, banning them from covering police responses to protests.
Robert Naiman, writing for Thruthout (January 28, 2011), quotes Egypt's Elbaradei asking, “If not Now, When?” The success of Egypt’s political firestorm will reshape Middle East policy and create entire new paradigms of power circles. These new regimes may distance themselves from the U.S., pose a greater threat to both Israel and Saudi Arabia, and seek regional direction from Iran.
In the 1950s, the chief foreign policy question was, “who lost China?” Today, the partisan question in Congress may well be, “who lost the Middle East?” On January 28, 2011, President Barak Obama finally addressed the on-going unrest in Egypt: “…all governments must maintain power through consent, not coercion…” The U.S. administration is walking a fine line between supporting the goals of protest, reform efforts, and the legitimacy of governments like the Mubarak regime.
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