Decline and Fall of the American Empire

Niall Ferguson's Essay in Foreign Affairs March/April 2010

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Mar 19, 2010 Michael Streich

Historian Niall Ferguson presents a different model for the decline and fall of empires, postulating that empires frequently fall rapidly and without warning.

It took just a few holes on the side of RMS Titanic to send the mighty liner to the ocean bottom one cold April night in 1912 in less than three hours. The “unthinkable” had happened and the so-called “unsinkable” Titanic went into the annals of maritime history as one of the worst disasters of all time. Niall Ferguson’s essay “Decline and Fall” in Foreign Affairs discusses how empires can dissolve catastrophically, often by seemingly unforeseen events. “Rome’s fall was sudden and dramatic,” Ferguson writes, evaluating empires in the light of current US dilemmas.

Why Empires Suddenly Collapse

Ferguson states that, “If empires are complex systems that sooner or later succumb to sudden and catastrophic malfunctions…what are the implications for the United States today?” He further asserts that “most imperial falls are associated with fiscal crises.” The United States may continue for an extended period with huge deficits as long as the perception of the US is positive. But, as Ferguson notes, “…one day, a seemingly random piece of bad news – perhaps a negative report by a rating agency…” will cause that perception to fade, leading to total failure.

On March 15, 2010, the Associated Press reported that Moody’s, a rating agency, had published a warning regarding the heavy national debts of the UK and the US, suggesting that this could jeopardize the top triple-A rating. Although much of that debt is tied to the so-called Welfare State, America’s wars abroad count heavily. Ferguson writes that, “Defeat in the mountains of the Hindu Kush or on the plains of Mesopotamia has long been the harbinger of imperial fall.” He cites the Soviet experience in Afghanistan as one recent model.

Other Perspectives Tied to Ferguson’s Thesis

Discussing the new role of the lone superpower following the dissolution of the Soviet Union (which Ferguson uses as an example of the swift-fall concept), British historian Eric Hobsbawm in 2003 wrote, “Megalomania is the occupational disease of global victors, unless controlled by fear.” In a February 2008 interview, Dr. Henry Kissinger identified three current problems, none of which can be adequately managed by one superpower or empire: “the disappearance of the nation state, the rise of India and China…” and a host of other problems “such as energy and the environment.”

Samuel Huntington’s The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order addresses similar themes. According to Huntington, new civilizations are emerging in a unipolar world, all of which must be addressed by the United States. Niall Ferguson takes the argument further, postulating that the decline of empires can be rapid, often within a generation and without warning. Part of this, according to Ferguson, is the notion of putting off the inevitable, relegating Armageddon to some future generation. One is reminded of British inhabitants in Singapore in 1942, sitting in the Raffles Hotel bar singing “There Will Always be an England” even as the Imperial Japanese army advanced into the suburbs.

Modern Empires May Fall Faster

Ferguson does not address comparative collapses in terms of imperial endurance. The Roman Empire lasted until the events of the 4th and 5th centuries. The Japanese Empire, in contrast, lasted but a few decades and might have lasted longer had it not been for a delayed scout plane at Midway discovering the American fleet too late. Thirty minutes potentially cost an empire years of life. Hitler’s projected 1000-year Reich lasted less than 15 years.

Niall Ferguson’s essay should be seen as a warning – a new lens to perceive how and why empires fall. Can the US avoid financial collapse? Are current leaders savvy enough to understand the lessons of history? Can one civilization co-exist with newly emerging ones? Finally, how will the answers transform an empire into one that endures or fails?

References:

• Erin Conroy, “Moody’s warning on US, UK ratings lifts dollar,” Associated Press, March 15, 2010
• Niall Ferguson, “Decline and Fall: When the American Empire Goes, It Is Likely to Go Quickly,” Foreign Affairs, March/April 2010
• Eric Hobsbawm, “Only in America,” The Chronicle Review, Volume 49, Issue 43, p B7, July 4, 2003
• Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996)
• Henry Kissinger, Spiegel Interview, February 18, 2008.
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The copyright of the article Decline and Fall of the American Empire in American History is owned by Michael Streich. Permission to republish Decline and Fall of the American Empire in print or online must be granted by the author in writing.